- The Big Idea: European troops on Ukrainian soil to deter future Russian aggression.
- US Factor: Key to the plan. Will America provide the necessary military backing?
- Troop Numbers: Less than 30,000 European soldiers, strategically placed.
- Tech Focus: Drones and remote monitoring to watch the front lines.
- Political Hurdles: Russia’s already saying ‘no way,’ and some European countries are hesitant.
Europe’s Ukraine Security Blueprint: What’s the Deal?
While the US and Russia engage in talks – notably without Ukraine at the table – European leaders are quietly hammering out a plan. The goal? To create a security net that stops Moscow from considering another attack on Ukraine. This isn’t just wishful thinking; it’s a concrete proposal gaining serious traction.
Expect this topic to dominate discussions when UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron separately head to Washington next week to meet with the US President. Starmer is adamant: this force needs American military might to be effective. Getting the US on board, however, might be a tough sell.
NATO Membership Off the Table?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ultimate wish? NATO membership. While European members of the alliance are still in favor, the US seems to have taken it off the table, crushing Ukrainian hopes of reclaiming the 20% of their territory seized by Russia. Ouch.
So, what’s the alternative? Zelenskyy believes over 100,000 European troops might be necessary to prevent a post-ceasefire flare-up. However, officials clarify that the discussion revolves around a “reassurance force,” not a massive peacekeeping army patrolling the entire 600-mile front line.
The Masterplan: Boots on the Ground (But Not Too Close)
The UK and France are championing a plan that would deploy fewer than 30,000 European troops within Ukraine. These troops wouldn’t be on the front lines. They’d be strategically positioned at key infrastructure sites, like nuclear power plants. Western air and sea power would provide backup.
The front lines would be monitored remotely using drones and other tech. Air power stationed outside Ukraine – possibly in Poland or Romania – would act as a deterrent and ensure Ukrainian airspace remains open for commercial flights. And yes, that could include American air power.
“There must be a U.S. backstop because a U.S. security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again,” Starmer stated plainly.
What Does America Say?
The US President has long argued that European NATO allies aren’t pulling their weight and need to step up for their own security. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has stated, “there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine,” but hasn’t ruled out support like air transport or logistics.
Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Gen. Keith Kellogg, suggested that all options are on the table. The ultimate shape of the force depends on the outcome of peace negotiations that haven’t even begun. Jamie Shea, a former NATO official, points out the mixed signals coming from the US administration, leaving everyone guessing.
Who’s In, Who’s Out? The European Lineup
The UK, France, and the Nordic and Baltic states are likely to be the main players. Italy faces constitutional limitations on troop deployments. In countries like the Netherlands, parliamentary approval is required.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has made it clear that Poland won’t send troops. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, after a recent meeting of European leaders, called talk of a European security force “premature,” stressing that NATO must remain the foundation of security.
Can This Plan Actually Work?
The success of this plan depends heavily on the terms of any ceasefire agreement. With Russia estimated to have around 600,000 troops in Ukraine, any deal leaving a significant portion of them in place risks renewed conflict.
France’s military has just over 200,000 personnel, while the UK has less than 150,000. Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute believes Europe would struggle to sustain a force even in the tens of thousands for multiple rotations over several years.
Michael Clarke from King’s College London notes that peacekeeping forces in Cyprus and Lebanon have been in place for decades. “If it is successful, it will last 20 or 30 years,” he said. “If it is not successful, it will break down into fighting inside two years.”
The Big Question: Is Europe Strong Enough?
Lithuania’s defense minister, Dovilė Šakalienė, acknowledges the truth in the US administration’s criticism of Europe’s defense spending and military strength.
“Russia is preparing for a long war,” she said. “They have now three times the manpower and their defense industry is moving quicker than that of Europe. Does anybody believe that this is only aimed at Ukraine? What is the use of security guarantees from a weak party? Europe needs to muscle up right now to be actually able to provide security guarantees that will hold.”
Key Takeaways:
- European nations are considering deploying troops to Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression.
- The plan’s success hinges on U.S. support, which is not yet guaranteed.
- The proposed force would be relatively small, focusing on strategic locations and remote monitoring.
- Political hurdles remain, with Russia opposed and some European nations hesitant.
- The long-term viability of the plan depends on the nature of any ceasefire agreement and Europe’s ability to strengthen its military capabilities.
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