- Adesina’s claim: Nigeria’s GDP per capita was higher in 1960 than it is today.
- The reality: 1960 GDP per capita was actually quite low, around $93.
- GDP per capita isn’t everything: It doesn’t account for improvements in healthcare, education, or access to technology.
- Nigeria has made significant progress: Mobile phone access, education, and infrastructure are vastly improved.
The Controversial Claim
A few days ago, Akinwumi Adesina, the outgoing president of the AfDB, stirred up a hornet’s nest. He claimed that Nigerians are worse off now than they were back in 1960. His argument hinges on GDP per capita figures, suggesting a significant decline over the past six decades.
According to Nairametrics, Adesina stated that Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 1960 was $1847, while today it stands at a mere $824. These figures, if accurate, paint a bleak picture of Nigeria’s economic progress. But are they accurate?
Unpacking the Numbers: A Reality Check
Let’s get one thing straight: Adesina’s figures simply don’t align with the available data. In 1960, Nigeria’s GDP was $4.2 billion. With a population of 44.9 million, the GDP per capita was a paltry $93. That’s right, less than a hundred dollars! [Source: Macrotrends]
Nigeria’s economic growth didn’t really take off until the 1970s, fueled by booming crude oil earnings. By 1970, our GDP had climbed to $12.55 billion, reaching $27.7 billion in 1975, $64.2 billion in 1980, and a whopping $164 billion in 1981.
| Year | GDP (Billions USD) | GDP per capita (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 4.2 | 93 |
| 1970 | 12.55 | Approx. 250 |
| 1980 | 64.2 | Approx. 880 |
| 2014 (Post-Rebasing) | 568.5 | 3,200 |
Source: Statista
Even by 1980, per capita income hadn’t exceeded $880. It peaked at $2187 in 1981 before dropping to $1844 in 1982. In 2014, after rebasing, it hit an all-time high of $3,200.
So, where did Dr. Adesina get his figures? It’s a valid question, but more importantly, his conclusion based on those numbers is highly questionable.
GDP Per Capita: A Flawed Yardstick
Adesina should know that GDP per capita is a limited tool for measuring living standards. It’s useful for comparing economic output, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. It masks income inequality, ignores the informal economy, and overlooks factors like access to healthcare and education. [Source: Investopedia]
GDP per capita doesn’t reveal whether Nigerians today have better access to healthcare, education, and transportation than they did in 1960. And that’s where the real progress lies.
Nigeria’s Progress: Beyond the Numbers
Compared to 1960, Nigeria boasts a significantly larger number of primary, secondary, and tertiary schools. Our road networks are more extensive, and we have more medical facilities, both private and public.
But perhaps the most striking improvement is in access to technology. At independence, Nigeria had just 18,724 operational phone lines for a population of 45 million. Today, over 200 million Nigerians have access to mobile phones and digital services. That alone suggests a vast improvement in living standards.
The Informal Economy: A Hidden Giant
Policymakers understand that official GDP figures often fail to capture the full scope of Nigeria’s economy. The informal sector, some say, may even be larger than the formal economy. This hidden economic activity is rarely reflected in GDP statistics, further distorting the picture.
The MTN Story: Proof in the Pudding
Back in 1999, when Vodacom considered entering the Nigerian market, consultants advised against it. They believed Nigerians were too poor to afford GSM services, based on GDP metrics. But MTN and other companies proved them wrong, demonstrating that GDP figures don’t always reflect a country’s true potential. [Source: MTN Q1 2024 Report]
MTN’s success story speaks volumes. In its first-quarter results this year, MTN declared a revenue of N1 trillion and an 8.2 percent increase in subscriptions, bringing the number of voice and data users to 84 million. Does this sound like a country worse off than in 1960, when we had fewer than 20,000 analogue phone lines?
The Bottom Line
No objective observer can deny that Nigeria has made significant progress since 1960. As we await the NBS’s recalibration of our GDP, we can confidently say that it is at least 50 times, if not 100 times, greater than it was at independence. So, while challenges remain, let’s not fall for misleading comparisons based on flawed data.
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