Nigeria’s Economic Pulse: Inflation Fears and Poverty Alarms
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has stepped in to ease worries about a potential inflation surge expected in December 2025. Meanwhile, former presidential candidate Peter Obi is sounding a dire warning about the nation’s escalating poverty crisis, describing it as a significant threat to Nigeria’s very survival. This article breaks down the NBS’s explanation for the statistical anomaly and Obi’s stark prognosis for the country’s future.
- NBS explains the projected December 2025 CPI spike is due to rebasing the index.
- Peter Obi warns that widespread poverty poses a ‘blatant threat’ to Nigeria’s survival.
- World food prices saw a decline in December, but global hunger remains a major concern.
Decoding the December Inflation Spike: NBS Steps In
Fear not, Nigerians! The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has come out to explain why the December 2025 inflation figures might look a bit jumpy. It’s not a sign of the economy suddenly imploding, but rather a technicality stemming from a big update. Adeyemi Adeniran, the Statistician General of the Federation, shed light on this during a recent virtual chat hosted by the NBS and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).
The main reason for this expected ‘spike’ is the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Think of it like updating a scorekeeping system. The NBS has adopted 2024 as the new base year, a move that hasn’t happened in 15 years since the last rebasing in 2009. This long gap means consumption patterns have changed a lot, leading to over 400 new products being added and more than 200 removed from the basket used to measure inflation. This linking of the old and new series, especially when setting December 2024 to 100, creates an ‘artificial’ jump in the numbers.
Why This Matters for Businesses and Policy
While this jump is purely mathematical and doesn’t necessarily reflect a worsening economy, it could cause confusion. If not explained properly, it risks shaking confidence in official statistics and making it harder for businesses and policymakers to make sound decisions. Adeniran stressed that these base effects are normal in statistics, especially when comparing periods with unusual price levels. The NBS wants to be upfront about this to ensure transparency and prevent misinterpretation.
“For transparency and accountability, we are engaging stakeholders to explain the statistical solution, which aligns with global best practice,” stated Dr. Ayo Anthony, Director of Price Statistics at the NBS. He further clarified that to avoid this arithmetic distortion, the NBS will adjust the figures. Instead of December 2024 equalling 100, the average CPI from January to December 2024 will be set to 100. This ensures a more accurate reflection of inflation dynamics, even though it affects data from January to December 2025.
It’s good to know that they consulted with international bodies like the IMF and World Bank, as well as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), before making this adjustment. They are committed to showing the original figures alongside the adjusted ones for full transparency.
Peter Obi’s Dire Warning: Poverty as a National Threat
While the NBS addresses statistical nuances, Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, is sounding a far more urgent alarm. He has declared that Nigeria’s escalating poverty crisis is a “blatant threat” to the nation’s future survival. Obi minced no words, criticising the political class for being too caught up in power struggles while millions of Nigerians sink deeper into hardship.
Obi cited recent economic reports indicating that Nigeria’s poverty rate could hit 62% this year, affecting around 141 million people. He highlighted a disturbing increase from 81 million in 2019 to a projected 141 million by 2026, calling it a national emergency that transcends political divides.
Production Over Taxation: Obi’s Economic Prescription
The former presidential hopeful criticized the current administration’s economic strategy, particularly its reliance on taxation. Obi argues that the government is trying to “tax its way out of poverty,” which he believes is counterproductive. Instead, he champions a focus on production as the key to sustainable prosperity, rather than burdening an already struggling population with more taxes.
He pointed out that despite substantial government revenue between 2023 and 2025, there hasn’t been a noticeable improvement in critical sectors like healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Comparing Nigeria to countries like India and Indonesia, which have significantly reduced poverty through human capital investment, Obi insists that Nigeria needs a similar strategic approach.
Competence, Compassion, and Character Needed
Obi also touched upon the recent discussions around “digital governance,” implicitly referencing the use of advanced imagery in public communication. He asserted that Nigerians don’t need “filtered optics” but rather “competence, compassion, and character” from their leaders. He’s calling for a unified national effort towards structural reforms in key areas like agriculture and job creation to build a better Nigeria.
Global Food Prices Dip, But Hunger Looms
In a related development, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that global food prices have been on the decline for the fourth month in a row. This drop in December was mainly due to lower prices for dairy, meat, and vegetable oils. The FAO Food Price Index hit its lowest point since January 2025.
However, this bit of good news is overshadowed by a stark warning from the head of the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP), Cindy McCain. She urged world leaders to act fast to prevent man-made famines, stating that global hunger has reached alarming levels. The WFP’s 2026 Global Outlook estimates that about 318 million people worldwide are facing severe hunger, with a significant number already experiencing famine-like conditions. Violent conflicts, extreme weather, and economic instability are identified as the main culprits driving this food insecurity.
McCain emphasized that the WFP, despite its resolve, can’t tackle this crisis alone. She called for earlier intervention from leaders during humanitarian crises and, crucially, an end to the conflicts that fuel desperation and hunger.
Key Takeaways:
- The NBS is proactively explaining a statistical inflation spike to maintain trust in economic data.
- Peter Obi is sounding the alarm on poverty, urging a shift from taxation to production.
- Global food prices are down, but the threat of widespread hunger remains critical.
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