Nigeria’s political landscape is buzzing as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar makes a dramatic move, joining the African Democratic Congress (ADC). This shift has ignited a fiery battle for influence, particularly in Adamawa State, where his presence is already causing ripples. But is this a masterstroke or a gamble? We break down the key players and what this means for the upcoming political contests.
A New Arena for an Old Warrior
The veteran politician, Atiku Abubakar, has once again switched party allegiance, this time formally joining the African Democratic Congress (ADC). This marks his third departure from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While this defection didn’t cause the same dramatic exodus from the PDP as his move to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2014, it has certainly stirred the pot in Adamawa State. The question on everyone’s lips is: How much sway can the former VP wield in his home state, especially in the crucial 2027 gubernatorial race?
Key Players Enter the Fray
The ADC’s coalition platform in Adamawa has attracted a star-studded cast. The presence of former Governor Bindow Jibrilla, Senators Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed (Binani), Barata, Aziz Nyako, and Ishaku Abbo at Atiku’s joining ceremony has raised eyebrows. This convergence fuels speculation about its impact on Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri’s grip on the PDP structure in the state. It’s a complex web, especially considering Fintiri’s previous alignment with Atiku within the PDP, a relationship that seemingly soured over strategic calculations for the 2027 elections and calls for Atiku to consider retirement from active politics.
The 2023 Echoes
Recall the nail-biting 2023 governorship election where Governor Fintiri narrowly defeated Binani of the APC. It was a contest that saw formidable figures like the current National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, and former Governor Bindow Jibrilla vying for the APC ticket, with Binani emerging victorious. After losing that ticket, Bindow reportedly realigned with Atiku, perhaps with an eye on a future political comeback. Meanwhile, Ribadu found a new national stage following President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s victory, securing a vital appointment as NSA.
ADC’s Power Play: Binani vs. Bindow?
With Binani and Bindow now converging under the ADC banner, the possibility of them clashing again for the party’s gubernatorial ticket looms large. However, insider whispers suggest Atiku might be leaning towards supporting Binani, potentially paving the way for Bindow’s return to the Senate. Atiku has historically shown a desire to elevate female governors, a vision he shared with the late Mama Taraba, Aisha Jummai Al-Hassan.
For Elisha Ishaku Abbo, whose Senate bid was overturned by the Court of Appeal, joining Atiku’s camp in the ADC presents a golden opportunity to reclaim his seat for Adamawa North Senatorial District.
The Ardo Factor: A Third Force Emerges?
Despite the seemingly strong foothold of the ADC, Adamawa’s political terrain might witness a three-way battle. Dr. Umar Ardo, a former ally of Atiku and a candidate in the 2023 governorship race under the Social Democratic Party (SDP), is gearing up for another run. He’s a key figure in the nascent All Democrats Alliance (ADA), a group he believes is gaining momentum independently of Atiku’s moves.
“I don’t think so. There is nothing that would happen to ADA. When it is finally registered, ADA will just rival ADC, that’s all.” – Dr. Umar Ardo
Ardo dismisses Atiku’s entry into the ADC as inconsequential to ADA’s prospects. He highlights a philosophical divergence, stating, “Ours is to ensure that Nigeria is put on a good pedestal; his objective is to become President, so we do not share the same values at all.” Ardo emphasizes his independent political journey and expresses confidence in ADA’s potential, even with heavyweights like Binani and Bindow backing Atiku. He insists that credibility, not just clout, will be the deciding factor.
The Road Ahead: Uncertainty and Strategic Moves
The political landscape in the North, particularly concerning the 2027 elections, remains fluid. The ADC, with Atiku’s backing, mirrors the influence of figures like Shekarau and Kwankwaso in Kano, and el-Rufai and Malami in Kaduna and Kebbi. Even Senator Aminu Waziri Tambuwal in Sokoto remains supportive of the coalition.
Atiku’s declaration upon receiving his ADC membership card, “this is where I am,” sounded more like an invitation than a definitive command. His registration at Jada 1 ward by Senator Sadiq Yar’Adua, the National Secretary of the ADC Registration and Mobilisation Committee, marked a significant moment, signaling the commencement of a new political chapter and a clear intent to challenge the ruling APC.
What ADC’s Rise Means for Adamawa
With the ADC forming a significant force in Adamawa, the resilience of Governor Fintiri’s PDP and the APC’s ability to regroup will be crucial. History shows Atiku’s impact; his move to APC in 2015 helped propel Bindow to governorship victory. The question now is whether the ADC can replicate such success against the combined forces of Fintiri and Ardo’s ADA.
| Political Figure | Party Affiliation | Potential Role |
|---|---|---|
| Atiku Abubakar | ADC | Coalition Leader, Gubernatorial Aspirant Support |
| Ahmadu Fintiri | PDP | Incumbent Governor |
| Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed (Binani) | ADC (Potentially) | Gubernatorial Ticket Contender |
| Bindow Jibrilla | ADC (Potentially) | Gubernatorial Ticket Contender, Senate Aspirant |
| Umar Ardo | ADA | Gubernatorial Candidate |
As the political chessboard in Adamawa State is being reset, all eyes are on how Atiku’s shadow will influence the careers of figures like Binani and Bindow. The coming months will undoubtedly reveal the true strength and direction of these political realignments. Will the ADC coalition truly be the game-changer, or will incumbency and new alliances prevail? Only time, and the voters, will tell.
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