The political landscape of Kwara State is buzzing with anticipation as the 2027 governorship elections draw nearer. While elections since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999 have seen participation from all three senatorial districts – Kwara Central, Kwara South, and Kwara North – a closer look reveals a recurring pattern of dominance, particularly from Kwara Central. This has sparked intense debate and maneuvering, with various factions vying for the top political seat. Get ready for a deep dive into the power plays, hidden agendas, and the evolving dynamics shaping Kwara’s political future.
- Historical Dominance: Kwara Central has held power for a significant period, raising questions about equity and rotational leadership.
- Emerging Aspirants: Several prominent figures have thrown their hats into the ring, signaling a competitive race.
- The “Kwara North Lokan” Narrative: Is the push for a Northern governor a genuine call for fairness or a strategic political maneuver?
- Southern Silence: The lack of major contenders from Kwara South adds another layer of complexity to the succession battle.
- The Role of Ilorin: Experts suggest that the political capital’s influence is key to any successful power shift.
- Calls for Competence: A growing movement advocates for a focus on merit and integrity over ethnic or regional sentiments.
The Kwara Succession Puzzle: A Game of Thrones
Since Nigeria embraced democracy in 1999, the governorship contests in Kwara State have, on the surface, appeared open to all. Aspirants and candidates have emerged from Kwara Central, Kwara South, and Kwara North, suggesting a level playing field. However, the reality on the ground paints a different picture. Kwara Central has been in the governor’s seat for a whopping 18 years, while Kwara South has had its turn for eight years. This sustained hold by one zone is no accident; it’s a result of a potent mix of smart politics, a strong voter base, the advantages of incumbency, and deep-rooted political influence, especially within the state capital, Ilorin. This creates a scenario where other zones often compete fiercely but find it an uphill battle to clinch the ultimate prize.
2027: The Race is On (Especially in Central)
As the 2027 election cycle heats up, the political arena is already getting crowded, with Kwara Central showing particular eagerness. Several politicians from this zone, representing different political parties, have made their intentions known. We’re seeing signals from prominent figures like Senator Salihu Mustapha, Ambassador Yahaya Seriki, Professor Abubakar Suleiman, and Engr. Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu. Their early moves underline a confidence that, for the Central zone, the governorship is once again within reach. It’s like they already have one foot in the door!
Kwara North’s Plea: A Genuine Call or a Clever Distraction?
In Kwara North, notable aspirants like Rt. Hon. Salihu Yakubu Danladi and Senator Sadiq Suleiman have also stepped forward. But beneath the surface, a more intricate political drama seems to be unfolding. Whispers from insiders suggest that the current governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, is subtly fanning the flames of the “Kwara North Lokan” (It’s Kwara North’s Turn) narrative. On paper, this sounds like a fair play, promoting the idea of rotational leadership for the sake of equity. However, many political observers and critics within Kwara see this as a strategic maneuver. They believe it’s a tactic to keep the North and South hopeful while ensuring that the real momentum stays with the Central zone aspirants.
This suspicion is further fueled by the recent visits of Kwara North’s traditional leaders to their counterparts in Kwara South, seeking support for the northern rotational claim. Interestingly, the language used in these appeals mirrors the governor’s political style, leading some to believe it’s a calculated effort to keep people emotionally invested in a promise that the Central zone hasn’t historically honored.
The Southern Enigma: Why the Silence?
Adding another layer of intrigue is the curious lack of prominent political figures from Kwara South formally declaring their interest in the 2027 race. This raises a critical question: why is the South being drawn into discussions and negotiations that haven’t even officially begun? Political analysts point out a crucial factor: only Kwara Central, with its substantial voting power, truly holds the key to guaranteeing a shift in power to Kwara North.
For this reason, some argue that Kwara North’s traditional leaders might have been smarter to direct their appeals towards the powerful royal institutions in Ilorin, including the Emir and other influential stakeholders whose support is crucial for the Central zone’s political might. Focusing their attention on Kwara South, in this view, appears to be a misdirection, perhaps even subtly encouraged by the incumbent governor’s inner circle. This might be a slight misstep in their strategy, you know?
The Governor’s Dual Strategy: Playing Both Sides
Insiders have described the governor’s approach as a clever two-pronged strategy. Publicly, he projects support for a Northern turn, championing fairness. Privately, however, he’s rumored to be backing his allies and kinsmen from the Central zone who are eyeing the APC ticket. This allows him to wear the hats of both a supportive leader and a neutral arbiter, fostering a sense of unity while subtly paving the way for the continuation of Central zone dominance. These tactics, while not exactly new in Nigerian politics, reinforce the idea that these “Lokan” narratives are often used more as bargaining chips than as firm commitments.
Historical Precedent: Power Rarely Given Freely
Looking back, the political establishment in Kwara Central, particularly the Ilorin political elite, has never voluntarily ceded power based solely on zonal agreements. There’s little to suggest this trend will change. Even when former Governor Bukola Saraki backed and helped install former Governor AbdulFatai Ahmed from Kwara South, it was seen more as a move within a political hierarchy, where Saraki’s own interests remained well-protected. For many critics, this is precisely why the growing vulnerability of Kwara South is a cause for concern. Its political class seems susceptible to the “deceptive Lokan” rhetoric, even while grappling with pressing socio-economic issues like escalating insecurity, widespread poverty, underdevelopment, and a steady migration from rural areas to cities.
Challenges Persist Across Zones
These challenges aren’t unique to Kwara South; they are also prevalent in Kwara North. This strengthens the argument that both zones should actively pursue the governorship with renewed determination, rather than relying on emotional appeals or vague assurances.
The Rise of “Igbomina Lokan”: Another Divide and Conquer Tactic?
Adding to the complexity, an “Igbomina Lokan” (It’s Igbomina’s Turn) sentiment is also emerging in Kwara South. Like the northern rotational demand, this is increasingly viewed not as a genuine effort to build consensus, but as another opportunity for political players in the Central zone to sow division. By fueling ethnic sentiments between the Southern and Northern aspirations, they aim to keep the path clear for a candidate from the Central zone.
A Call for Competence Over Sentiment
Experts consistently highlight that modern democracies don’t succeed based on ethnic or sub-ethnic sentiments alone. Political parties naturally prioritize candidates who have the best chance of winning broad support across the state – a truly detribalized leader. As the political maneuvering intensifies for 2027, analysts and civil society groups are urging a departure from divisive tactics and short-sighted regional calculations. They contend that Kwara’s political stakeholders must look beyond ethnic loyalties, patronage networks, and the age-old divide-and-rule strategies.
The Future of Kwara: Merit or Tradition?
Ultimately, the progress of Kwara State may hinge on supporting candidates who demonstrate proven competence, capacity, and integrity, irrespective of their senatorial district. The upcoming political transition in Kwara will serve as a crucial test: will the state’s leaders manage to break free from entrenched patterns, or will traditional power strategies once again dictate the outcome and shape the state’s future?
Shaba writes from Abuja.
Tags: Kwara, Nigeria