Tinubu’s Census Push: Will Insecurity and Economic Woes Derail Nigeria’s Headcount?

• Tinubu’s Initiative: President Tinubu inaugurates a committee for a new national census after a 19-year wait.
• Key Challenges: Insecurity and economic downturn threaten the census’s credibility.
• Tech-Driven Approach: Emphasis on using technology and biometrics for accurate data collection.
• Skepticism: Many Nigerians worry about political motives and potential misuse of funds.
• Expert Opinions: Analysts highlight the importance of accurate data for effective governance and planning.

Nigeria Attempts a Fresh Census After 19 Years

It’s been nearly two decades since Nigeria last conducted a national census. Now, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is determined to change that. He recently launched a high-level committee tasked with organizing a new population and housing census. The goal? To get an accurate count of Nigerians and their living conditions. But it’s not going to be easy.

Why Now? Tinubu’s Vision for Data-Driven Governance

Presidential aides say Tinubu’s push for a census is all about improving governance. Accurate population data is essential for:

• Resource Allocation: Making sure resources like fertilizers and employment programs are distributed effectively.
• Economic Planning: Developing sound economic strategies based on real population figures.
• Social Security: Strengthening social security programs to improve the lives of Nigerians.

Challenges on the Horizon: Insecurity and Economic Woes

However, the timing of this census raises eyebrows. Nigeria is currently grappling with:

• Widespread Insecurity: Violence and instability in various parts of the country.
• Economic Hardship: Rising inflation, unemployment, and poverty levels.

These challenges could make it difficult to conduct a credible census. Some Nigerians fear that the exercise could be disrupted by violence or manipulated for political gain.

Tech to the Rescue? A Technology-Driven Census

To ensure accuracy, President Tinubu wants the census to be technology-driven. This means using:

• Biometrics: Capturing unique biological data for identification.
• Digitalization: Using digital tools for data collection and analysis.

The idea is to minimize errors and prevent manipulation. But even with technology, there’s no guarantee of success.

Skepticism and Concerns: Is This About Politics?

Many Nigerians are skeptical about the census. Some believe it’s a political ploy to:

• Divert Attention: Shift focus away from pressing issues like insecurity and economic hardship.
• Siphon Funds: Misuse public funds allocated for the census.
• Gain Political Advantage: Manipulate population data to favor certain groups or regions in the 2027 elections.

These concerns highlight the deep-seated mistrust in government institutions.

Voices of Dissent: What the Experts Say

Experts have weighed in on the census debate:

• Jamilu Aliyu Charanchi (Coalition of Northern Groups): Questions the timing and feasibility of conducting a census before the 2027 elections, given the country’s numerous crises.
• Auwal Musa Rafsanjani (Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre): Stresses the importance of regular population data but warns about potential misuse of funds and political manipulation.
• HURIWA: Claims that successive administrations have lacked the political will to conduct a proper, scientific census.

A Look Back: Nigeria’s Census History

Nigeria has a long history of conducting censuses, dating back to 1866. However, many of these exercises have been marred by controversy and allegations of manipulation. Here’s a brief overview:

The Road Ahead: Can Nigeria Get It Right This Time?

President Tinubu’s push for a new census is a bold move. But success depends on overcoming numerous challenges, including insecurity, economic hardship, and deep-seated mistrust. Will Nigeria get it right this time? Only time will tell.