US Airstrikes: A Grand Slam Foul?
Kabir Adamu, a respected security analyst and head of Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited, didn’t mince words when speaking to ARISE News. “In simple terms, no,” he stated when asked if the strikes achieved their objective. The continued attacks by terrorists clearly show the mission was a bust. Adamu highlighted the lack of concrete evidence proving the strikes actually crippled the terrorists’ capabilities. “Till date, pictures haven’t been matched of corpses of those killed, neither have we seen pictures of destroyed camps, equipment they use in fighting, their gun trucks or weapons. That tells me that perhaps the intended outcome was never achieved,” he lamented.
Millions Down the Drain: The Tomahawk Fiasco
The revelation that four out of sixteen Tomahawk missiles, each costing a staggering two million US dollars, failed to detonate is simply mind-boggling. Adamu called this a “financial and operational failure.” That’s about eight million dollars literally up in smoke, or rather, not exploding at all! This brings into question the decision-making process behind weapon selection. Tomahawk missiles, designed for long-range precision strikes against heavily fortified targets, might be overkill and ill-suited for the asymmetric warfare prevalent in Nigeria. Adamu suggested that “Ground troops and other forms of weaponry would have been more effective.” It’s like using a sledgehammer to crack a nut, only the nut is still very much alive and kicking.
Intelligence: Garbage In, Garbage Out?
The missiles were launched from a US destroyer in the Gulf of Guinea, covering distances of over a thousand kilometers. Adamu pointed out that “Intelligence is not static, and the possibility exists that the intelligence changed from the time the missile was launched to when it hit the target.” Imagine sending a letter across the country and by the time it arrives, the address is no longer valid! He also mentioned that weather, technical glitches, and incorrect mapping could have contributed to the unexploded ordnance. Furthermore, it appears the US relied heavily on Nigerian intelligence, which might not have been as robust as needed for such a critical operation. The US intelligence capability in this region is reportedly “really basic” nowadays.
Wrong Target, Wrong War?
Adamu also raised a critical point about the choice of target: the Lakurawa group. He described them as a “low-priority threat,” far from the top ten most dangerous terrorist factions in Nigeria. “If it had been ISWAP, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, Ansaru or Boko Haram, one would have said these were more important and crucial terror groups. But the Lakurawas are somewhere way down,” he argued. This raises questions about the strategic objectives of the strike. Were they targeting the most significant threats, or was there another agenda?
Domestic Politics and Diplomatic Maneuvers
According to Adamu, the operation might have served more as a domestic political win for the US, especially with President Trump facing pressure from Congress. The timing on Christmas Day and the symbolic target in Sokoto, the seat of the Islamic Caliphate, were not coincidental. For Nigeria, Adamu suggested, it was a way to “de-escalate the pressure they were under from the United States.” It seems like a carefully orchestrated move for political theatre, both at home and abroad, rather than a decisive blow against terrorism.
A Look at the Bigger Picture: Insecurity in Nigeria
Adamu’s Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited released its 2025 annual report, painting a picture of persistent insecurity. While fatalities saw a slight decline year-on-year (from 11,692 in 2024 to 10,504 in 2025), and abductions also decreased, the situation remains dire. The northwest, particularly Zamfara and Katsina, continues to be plagued by banditry, with fatalities seeing a slight increase in December 2025.
Key Security Trends in 2025:
- Fatalities: Approximately 10,504 recorded in 2025, a 10.16% reduction from 2024.
- Abductions: 8,523 recorded in 2025, an 11.94% decrease from 2024.
- Northwest Surge: Fatalities increased in December 2025 due to banditry in Zamfara and Katsina.
Despite these figures, Adamu noted improvements from mid-2025 onwards, attributing them to better law enforcement, targeted operations, and improved synergy between intelligence and operations. However, policy inconsistencies, like the release of bandits in Katsina while Zamfara refused, remain a concern. Adamu stressed that the Nigerian government is in a “no-win situation” with ongoing US pressure.
The Way Forward: Suffocating the Oxygen of Terror
Adamu’s final advice is clear: focus on cutting off the resources that fuel terrorism. “We must suffocate the oxygen terrorists use to operate — their funding, recruitment, mobility, access to weapons and the shadow economy of illegal mining and kidnapping for ransom. The moment we block these, the insurgency will end,” he concluded. It’s a call for a more strategic, holistic approach to tackling the complex security challenges facing Nigeria.
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